On October 17, the World Steel Association released the latest version of the short-term (2023-2024) steel demand forecast report. The report shows that after global steel demand fell by 3.3% in 2022, it is expected to recover by 1.8% year-on-year in 2023, reaching 1.8145 billion tons; in 2024, it will increase by 1.9% year-on-year, reaching 1.8491 billion tons.The global steel market has felt the adverse effects of the high inflation and high interest rate environment. From the second half of 2022 to the first half of 2023, as investment and consumption momentum weaken, most of the world's steel markets are cooling sharply. The World Steel Association said that taking into account the delayed effects of tightening monetary policy, steel demand in developed economies will recover slowly in 2024, steel demand in emerging economies will grow faster than developed economies, and emerging economies in Asia will remain Better development resilience.

Under the premise of stable real estate, China's "steel demand" will increase by 2.0% year-on-yearBut the demand outlook in 2024 is not clearThe World Steel Association predicts that China's steel demand will grow by 2.0% year-on-year in 2023 on the premise of stable development of infrastructure investment and the real estate industry.The report pointed out that in the first half of this year, China's real estate investment confidence continued to weaken, and the willingness to start new construction was still low. The reduction in the area of new housing construction suppressed construction industry activities and will continue to affect steel demand in 2024. However, the Chinese government is vigorously promoting project construction, and China's infrastructure investment will maintain growth momentum in 2023. On this basis, the Chinese government may also launch some additional infrastructure projects. Therefore, the World Steel Association expects China's infrastructure investment to maintain moderate positive growth in 2023 and 2024. In addition, although the continued depression of the real estate market in 2022 will put pressure on China's economic growth, the Chinese government has actively taken measures to stabilize the economy since July this year, and the real estate market is expected to stabilize in the second half of this year. The report also predicts that China's manufacturing industry will maintain moderate growth in 2023, with the household appliance industry showing strong growth.The outlook for China’s steel demand in 2024 is unclear. The World Steel Association said that under the premise of stable development of infrastructure investment and the real estate industry, China's steel demand is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2023, but the pressure on the real estate market still exists. Without additional policy support, China's steel demand may contract in 2024, otherwise it may remain at the level of 2023. If the stimulus effect is weaker than expected, China's steel demand will face downside risks this year and next.

Steel demand" in developed economies is expected to decline by 1.8% year-on-year in 20232.8% year-on-year growth in 2024The report pointed out that steel demand in developed economies is expected to decrease by 1.8% year-on-year in 2023 and increase by 2.8% year-on-year in 2024.After falling by 7.8% year-on-year in 2022, steel demand in the European Union (27 countries) and the United Kingdom is expected to decrease by 5.1% year-on-year in 2023 and increase by 5.8% year-on-year in 2024. The World Steel Association said that although the EU economy is more resilient to the energy crisis than expected, high interest rates and high energy costs are hitting the region's manufacturing industry hard. Specifically, although the EU automobile industry maintains a recovery trend, automobile production is not expected to reach pre-epidemic levels in 2024; although residential construction is affected by factors such as high interest rates, high material costs, and labor shortages, infrastructure investment remains stable. As monetary policy in the region will remain tight, the World Steel Association expects that there will still be downside risks to actual demand in 2024. However, the World Steel Association said there may be another scenario, in which the end of the region's destocking cycle will boost the EU's steel demand to achieve positive growth in 2024. It is worth noting that Germany is currently experiencing dual crises in the manufacturing and real estate industries and is in an extremely difficult situation.

U.S. steel demand is expected to decline by 1.1% year-on-year in 2023 and increase by 1.6% year-on-year in 2024. The report pointed out that the U.S. steel industry has been negatively affected by the country's sharp interest rate hikes. The World Steel Association predicts that steel demand in the U.S. residential construction industry will contract from 2023 to 2024, but the commercial construction industry is showing a strong recovery. In addition, the U.S. manufacturing industry is also slowing down its pace of growth, but the automotive industry is expected to maintain a recovery trend. It is worth noting that due to the lagging effect of tightening monetary policy, U.S. steel demand still faces downward risks in 2024. Japanese steel demand is expected to decrease by 2.0% year-on-year in 2023 and increase slightly by 0.6% year-on-year in 2024. The report pointed out that labor shortages and rising costs have led to slow growth in Japanese construction industry activity. However, with the help of the recovery of the automobile industry, Japan's manufacturing steel demand is expected to show slight growth from 2023 to 2024. The World Steel Association said that since Japan is a supply-side constrained economy, the impact of a weak yen or external market changes on the country's steel industry will be limited.

South Korean steel demand is expected to grow by 3.3% year-on-year in 2023 and 1.1% year-on-year in 2024. The World Steel Association said that South Korea's economy is gradually recovering after the floods in 2022, and its construction industry has also shown slight positive growth after years of shrinkage. This will help the country's steel demand recover in 2023. The World Steel Association expects steel demand in the country to grow slightly in 2024 due to overall weakness in the manufacturing industry (excluding the automotive industry).